UK Economic
Outlook for Small Businesses June 2026

Key findings

The UK economy in June 2026

• UK GDP grew 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, but the full-year growth forecast has been cut to 0.8% by the OECD, the largest downward revision among G20 advanced economies, driven by the Middle East crisis.

• CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March before easing to 2.8% in April. The Bank of England now expects inflation to rise again in the second half of 2026 as energy price effects broaden.

• Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% for three consecutive meetings. Rate cut expectations have been fully reversed; markets are now pricing in the possibility of hikes. Over 1,500 mortgage products were withdrawn following the April MPC meeting.

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping (just 4% of pre-crisis transit volumes) pushing Brent crude to a peak of $114/barrel and keeping energy costs elevated.

Sector findings

• Retail: structural contraction, not a cycle. Retail’s share of platform funding applications has fallen from 4.7% to 0.5% in three years. Debt saturation, lender withdrawal and population attrition are all operating simultaneously.

• Hospitality and leisure: consumer confidence at its lowest since Q4 2024 (Deloitte). The July Ofgem price cap rise of 14% and April NLW/NIC cost shock are compressing margins. Inbound tourism remains a bright spot.

• Professional and B2B services: The UK services PMI fell to 49.3 in May (first contraction in 13 months) linked directly to client hesitancy from the Middle East crisis. Compliance and AI advisory remain resilient.

• Construction: new build is contracting while repair and maintenance grows. Materials costs are rising sharply again. A steel import tariff (July) and Building Safety Levy (October) add further cost shocks.

• Manufacturing: output grew modestly in Q1 2026 but the CBI forward survey shows more manufacturers expecting falls than growth. Energy intensive producers and firms with just-in-time supply chains are most exposed.

• Transport and logistics: fuel costs are the defining pressure, with motor fuel inflation at its highest since early 2023. The fuel duty freeze ends September 2026. 92% of road freight businesses are micro-operators with minimal buffer.

• Tech and digital: a deeply two speed sector. AI investment is running at record pace (£3bn+ in Q1 2026 alone). But the rate reversal is keeping funding costs elevated for pre profitable businesses.

• Health and social care: demand is structural and growing, but the funding model is under severe strain. A quarter of councils with social services responsibilities doubt their ability to meet legal duties in 2026–27.

Introduction

The UK economic outlook has shifted materially since the start of the year. An economy that had shown tentative signs of stabilisation now faces a renewed and compounding set of pressures. The Middle East crisis, triggered by joint US-Israeli military strikes on February 28, has added an energy shock, supply chain disruption, and deep monetary uncertainty to a domestic situation that was already challenging for small businesses. 


The headline numbers tell the story. UK GDP grew by 0.6% in Q1 2026(1), a solid start to the year. But the full year outlook has deteriorated sharply: the OECD has cut its UK growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.8%(2), and KPMG now projects 0.7%. The OECD has specifically identified the UK as facing the largest growth impact from the Middle East conflict among all G20 advanced economies³, reflecting the country’s particular exposure to gas prices for both heating and electricity generation.


Inflation, which had been on course to reach the Bank of England’s 2% target by spring 2026, has instead moved in the wrong direction. CPI rose to 3.3% in March before easing slightly to 2.8% in April(4) as the Ofgem price cap reduction temporarily offset rising fuel costs. But the Bank of England has signalled that inflation is likely to rise further in the second half of the year as energy price increases feed more broadly into goods and services. The OECD forecasts UK inflation to average 3.2% in 2026; some projections place it as high as 4%. Monetary policy is now on hold. Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% at both the March and May MPC meetings(5), the third consecutive meeting without a cut since December 2025. Governor Andrew Bailey has left the door open to rate hikes if inflation becomes entrenched(6).

Markets, which at the start of the year had priced in two to three cuts through 2026, have repriced sharply, with over 1,500 mortgage products withdrawn following the April MPC meeting. The next decision is due on 18 June. Against this backdrop, the pressures that were already defining for UK small businesses (wage inflation, high financing costs, fiscal drag, and subdued consumer spending) have been amplified. Businesses in energy intensive sectors, import dependent supply chains, and transport and logistics are facing a compounding shock. Those with recurring revenues, pricing power, and strong financial discipline are better placed to absorb it. In this June edition of the UK Economic Outlook for small businesses, we examine how these dynamics are affecting demand, costs, and credit risk across key economic sectors, and where resilient growth is most likely to emerge.

Middle East crisis and the revised UK outlook

The joint US-Israeli military strikes on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have fundamentally altered the UK economy. Now three months on, the effects are no longer speculative: they are showing up in inflation data, mortgage markets, business confidence surveys, and supply chain disruption across multiple sectors. For UK small businesses, the crisis is directly affecting operating costs, supply chain reliability, and the cost of capital.

Energy prices

• Brent crude peaked at $114/barrel in early May before easing to around US$96–97 as of early June, still approximately US$30 above pre-conflict levels.(7) Goldman Sachs has raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/barrel, while Barclays forecasts a full-year average of $100/barrel. Citi has warned prices could reach $150 if flows remain disrupted through end of June.

• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial shipping. Just 7 vessels transited on May 29 (10% of the pre-crisis baseline of 70+ per day), according to IMF PortWatch.(8) War risk insurance now prices up to 5x pre-crisis levels, with six Protection and indemnity insurance (P&I) clubs having withdrawn cover entirely.(9)

• 89% of the crude oil and condensate that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in H1 2025 was destined for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration.(10)

• US–Iran peace talks remain stalled. President Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal and the ceasefire has been described as being on ‘life support’. The OECD has identified the UK as facing the largest growth impact from the conflict among G20 advanced economies, reflecting the country’s particular exposure to gas prices. Chancellor Reeves has stated the crisis is ‘likely’ to push UK inflation up(11).

Supply chain resilience

Both of the Middle East’s major maritime corridors are now simultaneously blocked for the first time in modern history. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, while Houthi forces resumed Red Sea attacks on February 28, reversing the limited progress made since the October 2025 ceasefire. The Suez Canal route, which had been recovering toward 120 vessel passages per month, has fallen sharply again, with most major carriers rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Critical components including semiconductors and EV batteries destined for 2026 production runs remain stranded. Small businesses with just in time supply chains face both cost and availability pressure with no near term resolution in sight.

Monetary squeeze

Prior to the conflict, the Bank of England was widely expected to cut rates two to three times throughout 2026. At the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on April 30th, Governor Andrew Bailey left the door open for rate hikes to manage future inflation risks. Markets immediately repriced from cuts to potential hikes, with the impact visible in over 1,500 mortgage products being withdrawn from the market.(12)

Defence and fiscal shift

Reported Iranian missile strikes on an RAF base in Cyprus have heightened the risk of direct UK involvement, potentially diverting fiscal headroom away from growth oriented spending toward defence.

Sectoral vulnerability at a glance

Consumer facing sectors: retail, hospitality and leisure

Consumer facing sectors are being squeezed from both sides. Demand was already decelerating before the Middle East crisis; the renewed energy shock has made conditions materially worse. The Deloitte Consumer Tracker recorded its largest fall in economic confidence since Q4 2024 in Q1 2026(13), with the index falling 13.5 percentage points, returning to levels last seen four years ago. Consumer discretionary spending has fallen to its lowest level in three years, as the prospect of rising energy bills has hit household budgets before those bills have even arrived. Retail sales fell 0.7% year-on-year in April 2026, the sharpest decline since November 2024, according to Barclays. Overall spending volumes across retail, hospitality and leisure are now forecast to rise by just 0.4% in 2026, with discretionary volumes continuing to underperform as essential categories absorb a larger share of household budgets.(14)

The energy cost outlook is a significant new headache for operators. The Ofgem price cap, set at £1,641 for Q2 2026, rises to £1,862 from 1 July, a 14% increase directly reflecting higher global gas prices from the Middle East conflict.(15) Household energy bills remain 35% above pre-crisis levels even after the falls of 2024–25, and further rises are expected through winter as the crisis continues to put pressure on wholesale gas markets. For hospitality and leisure operators with significant fixed energy costs, this represents a renewed structural drag on margins. Labour costs have compounded the pressure. The National Living Wage rose to £12.71 an hour from April 2026, a 4.1% increase(16), and higher employer National Insurance costs have landed on top, adding materially to the wage bills of retail and hospitality businesses just as margins were thinning.(17) In practice, pay growth has run ahead of the mandated uplift, reflecting persistent skills shortages and the structural elevation of wages since Brexit.

Insolvency pressure remains historically elevated. 3,353 accommodation and food service companies entered insolvency in the 12 months to December 2025, the third highest sector across all UK industries, behind only construction and retail/wholesale.(18) With the April 2026 cost increases now fully in force and consumer confidence weakening, the sector faces one of its most challenging cost environments since the post-pandemic reopening surge unwound.

There are pockets of resilience. Food and drink remains the most robust category, and inbound tourism continues to provide support: VisitBritain forecasts 45.5 million inbound visits and £35.7 billion in spending for 2026, up 4% and 7% respectively compared to 2025.(19) Premium and experiential operators, particularly those serving higher-income consumers who retain significant disposable income, continue to outperform. The divergence between operators with strong propositions and those relying on volume and footfall is widening.

The decline in funding applications (Figure 1) within the retail sector has accelerated to a point that goes well beyond the debt saturation identified earlier this year. Retail’s share of all platform applications has fallen from 4.7% in Q1 2023 to just 0.5% in Q1 2026, a tenfold relative decline, even as total applications across the platform grew by 52% over the same period. The data reveals three distinct dynamics operating in sequence. The initial cliff in the first half of 2023 reflected debt saturation as pandemic era BBL deferrals expired and lenders partially withdrew from a sector carrying the largest volume of outstanding COVID debt. This was followed by a plateau through 2024, the residual pool of creditworthy retailers who could still qualify. But from the second quarter of 2025 a renewed and accelerating structural decline has set in, with applications falling 65% in four quarters including a 43% drop in the first quarter of 2026 alone.

Three forces are driving this latest phase. First, population attrition: with 1,961 retail insolvencies recorded in 2025 and more than 13,000 chain store closures, the universe of viable businesses that could apply is simply shrinking. Second, lender withdrawal: lenders appetite for retail has cooled. Third: many retailers still trading might be in survival mode: servicing pandemic debt, managing HMRC enforcement following the December 2025 repayment deadline, and absorbing the April 2026 NIC and NLW cost shock. Taken together, the evidence points to a sector undergoing permanent structural contraction, not a cyclical trough. The borrowing gap reflects a retail sector structurally smaller, more financially constrained, and increasingly unable to access the capital markets that other sectors are using to grow.

“From where we sit, lender appetite for retail has cooled, even if no one says so out loud. The rejections speak for themselves. Then there's HMRC. Tax arrears are everywhere, and that flag alone is enough for most lenders to walk away. It signals distress, and it puts them behind HMRC in the queue. The result is a sector that struggles to get funding even when it needs it most."
- Nick Richardson, Head of Funding, Capitalise

Figure 1 - Funding application by sectors: the decline of the retail sector

Indexed volume of funding applications (Q1 2023 = 100)

Professional and B2B services

Professional and B2B services were on a solid growth trajectory through early 2026, but the Middle East crisis has introduced a meaningful new headwind. Professional, scientific and technical activities grew 1.2% in Q1 2026 according to ONS(20), and the UK services PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) held above 50 through April. But the May 2026 flash estimate fell to 49.3 (the first contraction in 13 months) with survey respondents directly citing client hesitancy and delays in spending linked to the conflict(21). The sector is also splitting internally: compliance driven work remains resilient, while discretionary project spend is softening as corporate clients extend sales cycles and defer decisions.

The sector contributed approximately 12% of UK Gross Value Added in 2024(22), with consultancy sector revenue reaching £91.9 billion including £46.8 billion in exports. Compliance driven services (accounting, tax, legal, and managed IT) remain structurally resilient, benefiting from recurring client requirements that are non-discretionary. The Middle East crisis has added a new category of demand: advisory around energy security, defence procurement, and geopolitical risk is growing among corporate clients reassessing their supply chains and operational exposures.

AI is simultaneously the sector’s most significant opportunity and its most disruptive force. Law firms and consultancies are publicly acknowledging reductions in junior and administrative roles driven by AI adoption, while demand for AI strategy, implementation, and assurance services is accelerating. A KPMG survey of 1,500 UK private business owners in February 2026 found AI has overtaken technology generally as the top investment priority(23), a significant shift that is driving advisory workloads for professional services firms across sectors. Roles requiring AI skills command a 14% wage premium, and professional services firms are among the biggest beneficiaries of AI driven productivity gains. For small businesses in this space, the competitive pressure is acute: clients increasingly expect AI enhanced delivery at the same or lower price points.

Labour costs remain the dominant cost pressure. Average weekly earnings in professional services continue to exceed the UK median(24), though overall wage growth has moderated to around 3.8% as the labour market softens (unemployment reached 5.2% in early 2026, a post-pandemic high). The April 2026 NIC changes continue to bite, raising the effective cost of every employee just as firms are trying to protect margins. Late payment continues to present a threat to cash flow resilience. UK businesses are collectively owed £26 billion in overdue payments at any one time, with late payment contributing to an estimated 38 business closures per day.(25)

Credit risk remains relatively contained compared to other sectors. Firms with diversified recurring revenues, strong credit management, and exposure to AI and compliance advisory are the clear credit winners. The most exposed are agencies and project based consultancies dependent on discretionary spend from a narrow client base, particularly those serving sectors now under their own financial pressure, such as retail and construction.

Construction and property services

Construction sector spotlight

• 2.2 million employees

• 870,000 total businesses

• 3,851 insolvencies (12 months to Feb 2026)

• 6% share of UK GDP

The outlook for construction and property services has deteriorated since the start of the year. New build activity is contracting, private residential development in particular is stalling, as mortgage rates remain elevated and developer confidence stays weak. The government’s target of 1.5 million new homes this parliamentary term looks increasingly remote, with planning bottlenecks and a renewed financing squeeze compounding regulatory complexity under the Building Safety regime. Not all segments are under equal pressure. Repair, maintenance and retrofit work has held up well (homeowners continue to improve rather than move) and infrastructure output is growing, supported by energy generation contracts and the water sector’s AMP8 capital programme. Public sector pipelines remain the lower-risk end of the sector.

Cost pressures, which had been easing since the 2021–22 highs, are rising again. The Middle East crisis is pushing up prices for energy intensive materials (steel, aggregates and cement) and a new steel import tariff due in July 2026 will add further pressure. Labour costs remain the more persistent drag, with skilled trades wages continuing to outpace headline inflation. Fixed-price contracts signed before the current cost environment materialised are the fault line for credit risk in the sector.

Construction insolvencies have moderated slightly year on year but remain the highest of any UK sector, accounting for around 17% of all company failures according to the Insolvency Service.(26) The gap between firms anchored to infrastructure and public sector work and those exposed to private residential new build has rarely been wider. Increasingly the deciding factor is not the pipeline of work but whether a firm can fund the gap between paying for materials and being paid for the job.

We recently worked with an installation specialist that was importing materials on long lead times and losing contracts as a result, they were effectively quoting around their own supply delays. A working capital facility gave them the headroom to hold stock and commit to delivery dates with confidence, which put them back in contention for work they had been turning away. It's a fairly typical example of how access to capital, rather than demand, is now the binding constraint for these businesses." Nick Richardson, Head of Funding, Capitalise

Manufacturing and exporting

Manufacturing output grew modestly in Q1 2026 according to ONS(27), with most subsectors contributing positively. Yet the composition masks a deepening divergence. Growth was concentrated in transport equipment and motor vehicles, while machinery, electrical equipment and electronics all contracted. The forward outlook has deteriorated: the CBI’s April 2026 Industrial Trends Survey shows more manufacturers expecting output to fall over the coming quarter than rise(28), a signal of gathering caution rather than confidence.

The Middle East crisis has added a significant new cost pressure. The UK’s reliance on gas for power generation leaves energy intensive manufacturers particularly exposed to the current price spike. Supply chains have been disrupted more broadly: freight costs on routes through disrupted maritime corridors have surged sharply, extending lead times and forcing manufacturers either to hold more inventory or accept delayed inputs. Firms with just-in-time models are feeling this most acutely.

Export conditions remain difficult. Post-Brexit trade friction continues to bear down on goods exporters, and sluggish demand across key European markets is limiting the upside. Some exporters have benefited from a weaker sterling, but this is an uneven advantage, most meaningful for niche, high value manufacturers with genuine pricing power in overseas markets. Niche manufacturers with long term contracts, specialist products or sole supplier positions are better placed to absorb cost shocks and maintain lender confidence. Energy intensive commodity producers with narrow margins and limited pricing power face the most acute pressure.

Transport, logistics and fleet heavy SMEs

Transport and logistics was showing signs of stabilisation heading into 2026. Haulage insolvencies had been falling after peaking in 2023, freight volumes were positive, and the fuel duty freeze was providing some temporary relief. The Middle East crisis has disrupted all three of those dynamics simultaneously. Fuel costs are the defining pressure. Motor fuel inflation reached its highest level since early 2023 according to the ONS(29), with petrol prices rising sharply between February and March 2026 as crude oil prices surged. Road haulage associations report members paying significantly more for fuel than before the conflict began. The fuel duty freeze, which had been a modest buffer, ends in September 2026, adding a further step-up to operating costs in the autumn just as energy price effects are expected to broaden.

The structural features of the sector amplify these pressures. Around 92% of road freight businesses employ fewer than ten people according to Department for Transport analysis(30), a highly fragmented market of micro operators with little room to absorb sustained cost increases. Driver shortages remain unresolved, keeping wages structurally elevated. Maintenance, insurance and vehicle replacement costs have continued to rise. Margins in logistics are typically thin, making cash flow management the decisive variable. The improvements in insolvency rates seen through 2025 are now at risk of reversal as fuel costs, wage pressures and a softening freight demand environment converge. Resilience depends not on demand growth (which will remain modest) but on contract structures, operational efficiency, and the discipline to avoid overextending the cost base.

Tech, digital and high growth SMEs

The UK tech and digital sector is experiencing its sharpest internal divergence in years. At the top end, AI investment is running at record pace. UK AI startups raised £8 billion in venture capital in 2025 and have already surpassed £8.3 billion in the first half of 2026, with the sector already shattering the previous year’s record.(31) The government’s Sovereign AI Fund, AI Growth Zones, and broader policy support are creating real momentum for AI native firms and profitable SaaS businesses. For the broader small business tech population, the environment is considerably more subdued. Corporate clients remain cautious and sales cycles have extended. The Bank of England’s shift from expected cuts to potential rate hikes has kept the cost of external capital elevated, making conditions harder for capital hungry, pre profitable businesses. Venture style firms with high burn rates remain unsuitable candidates for debt financing, and the window for raising on favourable terms has narrowed considerably.

The firms best positioned are those that have already reached profitability or near break-even, with recurring revenues, low churn, and limited dependence on external equity. For these businesses, the current environment is an opportunity: cautious clients still need technology that demonstrably reduces costs or replaces headcount, and the competitive field of weaker peers is thinning.

Health, social care and education

Health, social care and education related small businesses benefit from structural demand that is not going away. An ageing population, rising complexity of need, and sustained pressure on public services all point to growing requirements for private and third sector provision. But the gap between the demand for their services and the funding available to pay for them continues to widen. Credit risk in this sector is heavily tied to the financial health of local authorities as counterparties. Providers with high concentrations of local authority-funded residents face the most acute exposure.

The funding environment for private providers is deteriorating. The Association of Directors of Adult Social Services has identified a funding gap of over £1 billion for adult social care to simply stand still.(32) When local authorities are under this degree of financial pressure, the rates they pay to private providers are the first thing to stall, creating a structural squeeze between the rising cost of delivery and flat or declining income.

Labour costs are the dominant pressure. The NLW increase from April 2026 and higher employer NIC costs add approximately £2.4 billion to the sector’s cost base(33), with little prospect of equivalent uplifts in funding rates from commissioners. The government has announced long-term adult social care reform, including a Fair Pay Agreement expected in 2028, but this does little to ease the immediate cash flow challenge for providers operating today.

Resilience determines the winners

The data across every sector in this report points to the same underlying dynamic: the gap between businesses that are actively managing their financial position and those that are reacting to it is widening. An energy shock, a monetary reversal, elevated insolvencies and a softening consumer environment have all arrived at once. This is not a period that rewards passivity.

The SME Resilience Toolkit

To build financial resilience, businesses should focus on four fundamental pillars of financial health:

1. Clean up business data: maintaining a strong business credit profile ensures the company looks "bankable" to the market. Identifying risks and building positive signals can lift a credit score, this unlocks higher trade credit limits, and improves the terms offered by suppliers.

2. Credit risk management: with insolvencies rising in key sectors, businesses must monitor their debtors. Running regular credit checks on key customers provides a clear picture of their financial health, allowing the business to set sensible payment terms and act early if a customer’s risk profile starts to change.

3. Strengthen working capital: efficient cash flow forecasting is the most important way for a business to manage daily operations. By understanding their KPIs, management can avoid "reactive cost cutting" (such as slashing marketing) that often hampers long term recovery.

4. Marketplace access: when funding is required, businesses should avoid the "panic search”. Our marketplace connects SMEs to over 130 lenders, matching businesses with the right facility, so that they secure the best rates available and support their strategic growth.

Sources

1. ONS, GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2026.


2. House of Commons Library, GDP international comparisons: Economic indicators, May 2026.

3. OECD Economic Outlook, March 2026, cited in House of Commons Library briefing.

4. OECD Economic Outlook, March 2026, cited in House of Commons Library briefing. 


5. Bank of England, June 2026.

6. Bank of England, June 2026.

7. Fortune, “Current price of oil”, 1–2 June 2026; Capital.com crude oil forecast, 18 May 2026.

8. CNN Business, “94 days of paralysis: The Strait of Hormuz remains choked off”, 2 June 2026; Straits live tracker, 1 June 2026; IMF PortWatch data.

9. Lloyds List, 03 March 2026.

10. US Energy Information Administration, Strait of Hormuz oil flow data.

11. Financial Times, 09 March 2026.

12. IMLA Market Briefing: March 2026 - Key developments in the economy, housing and mortgage markets

13. IMLA publications

14. Deloitte Consumer Tracker, Q1 2026, April 2026.

15. Barclays, UK Consumer Spending Report, April 2026.

16. Institute for Government, Domestic Energy Bills explainer, May 2026; Ofgem price cap Q3 2026

17. House of Lords Library, Hospitality and retail sectors: Impact of government policy, January 2026.

18. British Retail Consortium, NIC impact on retail sector, 2026; Hospitality Industry Statistics UK 2026.

19. Insolvency Service / Buchler Phillips Hospitality Index, cited in Hospitality Industry Statistics UK 2026.

20. VisitBritain, Inbound Tourism Forecast 2026.

21. ONS, Index of Services, UK: March 2026.

22. S&P Global / House of Commons Library, UK Services PMI, May 2026 flash estimate.

23. TheCityUK, Key facts about UK-based financial and related professional services, 2025.

24. KPMG UK, Private businesses eye international trade to drive growth in 2026, February 2026.

25. Forbes, Average UK Salary By Age In 2026

26. Late Payment Reform briefing, DJH Chartered Accountants, April 2026; UK Government, Small Business Protections (Late Payments) Bill, 2026.

27. Insolvency Service, Company Insolvency Statistics, March 2026 (covering 12 months to February 2026).

28. ONS, Index of Production, UK: March 2026 (Q1 2026 data)

29. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, April 2026, cited in House of Commons Library, Economic update: How resilient are current supply chains? May 2026.

30. ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: March 2026 (transport division 4.7% annual inflation, highest since December 2022).

31. Department for Transport, Road freight statistics, cited in parliamentary answer, February 2026: 92% of road freight businesses have 0–9 employees.

32. UK Tech news, 08 June 2026

33. House of Commons, Adult social care funding in England.

Disclaimer

This white paper is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or an offer of any financial product or service. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information at the time of publication, Capitalise.com Platform Ltd makes no guarantees, express or implied, regarding the completeness or reliability of the content. Readers should seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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